Climate Change Modeling Expert

hace 23 horas

Panama United Nations A tiempo completo

Result of Service

The consultant will report directly to the Adaptation Climate Change Programme Officer for Latin America and the Caribbean and will work in closed collaboration with the National Coordination team for the project in Ecuador and the Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition. Products will be elaborated according to the NAP guidelines for the human settlements sector with biophysical models (level 3).

S/He will be primarily responsible for elaborating climate change risks assessment for the city of Santo Domingo, Ecuador, as follows:
1. Landslide and Flood Impact Modelling
- Landslide model based on machine learning.
- Flood model based on hydrological and hydraulic models at up to 3 outflow points distributed in the analysis territory (with HEC RAS and HEC HMS models)
- .

2. Model Of Flood Impacts
- Determination of susceptible areas to flooding based on interpretation of the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) analysis and non-physical modelling of up to 13 locations.
- hydrological model for the entry point in the settlement of Alluriquín (with HEC HMS model).

3. Adaptation Measures
- Identification of adaptation measures based on the results.

3. Scope of Work

For these three areas of work, the following products will be prepared:
Product 1 - Proposed methodology, synthesis and availability of information.

The information for Santo Domingo shall include:
1. Official Climatic information for the historical data and future scenarios proposed for the AND.

2. Literature review of local baseline and applicable methodologies for climate risk and adaptation.

3. Geomorphological information

4. Population and housing in precarious conditions, with focus in the sectorial group of the NAP.

5. Social and local Infrastructure.

6. Other background information.

Product 2 - Preliminary results of the flood and landslides susceptible areas.

The following results are expected, which shall be presented during a meetings to the regional, national and local teams and involved stakeholders:
1. Map and spatial statistics of the landslide susceptible areas resulting from the Machine Learning based Landslide Model for Santo Domingo and Alluriquín.

2. Map and spatial statistics of the area susceptible to flooding based on Hydrological and Hydraulic Models in 3 outflow points distributed in the territory of analysis.

3. Map and spatial statistics of the area susceptible to flooding according to the Hydrological Model for the entry point in the settlement of Alluriquín.

4. Map and spatial statistics of areas susceptible to flooding according to interpretative DTM analysis and non-physical modelling for up to 13 locations.

Product 3 - Final modeling of the climate risk and biophysical impacts in Santo Domingo and adaptation measures.

The following results are expected, which shall be presented during a meetings to the regional, national and local teams and involved stakeholders:
1. Interpretation of results including maps and spatial statistics of population and housing in precarious conditions classified according to area susceptible to landslides and floods according to historical period and 5 typical years. The calibration of information is contemplated in this activity.

2. Meetings to disseminate information and results, and the use of modeling programs, aimed at the level of capacities of the regional, national and local teams. Main spatial results uploaded on open and online platforms for maps.

3. Identification of general adaptation measures according to the results, at the same scope applied in the NAP process for the climate risk in human settlements. Workshops and technical meetings will be coordinated with the Readiness Project implemented in Santo Domingo. Three field visits are contemplated for this evaluation.

4. Digital Annex with all input and output data files. Delivery of the programming script used for landslide and basin modelling, in the format shared in the NAP process.

5. Full technical report and presentation of results.

Detailed specifications for each assignment will be given to the selected consultant.

Project’s Outputs

Output 2.2.1 13 city level assessments elaborated to determine the baseline, vulnerability and GHG emissions and to identify potential NbS opportunities for adaptation and mitigation, validated by city level stakeholders including the NbS Task group for the 13 selected cities

Deliverables

Product 1: Proposed methodology, synthesis and availability of information. Report and presentation with literature review and detailed information.

Product 2: Preliminary results of the flood and landslides susceptible areas. Report and presentation with modeling process, maps and spatial statistics.

Product 3: Modeling of the climate risk and biophysical impacts in Santo Domingo and adaptation measures. Report and presentation of the final maps and results. Report and presentation of the adaptation measures.

Work Location
Home-Based

Expected dur

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