Consultant in Employment Impact Analysis

hace 6 meses

Panamá, Panamá United Nations A tiempo completo

Result of Service

This consultancy aims to develop a study to assess the electric mobility impact on employment in Mexico by using the input-output matrix.

Output 1. Methodology to assess the impact of electric mobility on employment. Under the technical guidance of the ICCT and UNEP teams, the consultant will develop and adapt the I-O matrix (input-output matrix) to assess the impact of the substitution of ICEV (Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles) for BEV (Battery Electric Vehicles). The consultants will adapt the methodology elaborated by the University of Sao Paulo to associate any increase in aggregate demand with public policies, such as tax incentives and a phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies.

Output 2. Assessment study on electric mobility impact on employment in Mexico. Based on the methodology developed in Output 1, the consultant will implement the methodology to the Mexican case.

1 Mexican I-O matrix adaptation. The consultant will introduce the synthetic BEV production industry into the Mexican I-O matrix and balance its column (demand) and row (supply).

2 Variable research. Determine the data for the model variables, such as the impact of the import penetration of key sectors such as auto parts, electric equipment, and employment coefficients for the synthetic BEV production industry developed in activity. The consultant will access global literature and determine the most ideal for the Mexican environment.

3 Model the scenarios. Using the adapted I-O matrix (activity 2.1) and the determined variables (activity 2.2), the consultant will run the scenarios for output and employment variations under the different hypotheses suggested by ICCT and UNEP.

4 Perform sensitivity analysis. Based on the scenarios developed (activity 2.4), the consultant will perform sensitivity analyses of domestic battery production, vehicle imports and exports

Deliverables

Product 1: One (1) methodology to add the BEV inclusion within an I-O matrix, including the benchmark analysis of the assessed methodologies and justification of the developed method.

Product 2: One (1) assessment study with i) the adapted I - O Mexican matrix balancing demand and supply (activity 2.1), ii) at least three (2) scenarios, with the suggested hypotheses (activity 2.2) and iii) the data selected for the key variables (activity 2.3).

Product 3: One (1) assessment study of the sensitivity analyses.

The consultant will be responsible for the following:

- Collecting and processing the data necessary to develop the aforementioned studies.
- Attend meetings, calls, and guidelines provided by the UNEP Programme Management Officer for Energy Efficiency for Latin America and the Caribbean Office.
- Comply with the deadlines stipulated by the UNEP Programme Management Officer for Energy Efficiency for Latin America and the Caribbean Office.

Work Location
Home-based

Expected duration
3 Months

**Responsibilities**:
The United Nations Environment Programme is the leading global environmental authority that sets the global environmental agenda, promotes the coherent implementation of the environmental dimension of sustainable development within the United Nations system and serves as an authoritative advocate for the global environment.

The UNEP Latin America and the Caribbean Office (LACO), located in Panama City, Panama, works closely with the 33 countries of the region and its activities are integrated into the Medium-Term strategy, and the Programme of Work approved by the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA).

Electric mobility is a priority measure for Latin American and Caribbean countries as a means to decarbonize the transport subsector and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The transport sector is responsible for nearly a quarter (23 per cent) of global energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is growing faster than any other end-use energy sector. GHG emissions from transportation are expected to increase by nearly 20 per cent by 2030 and by nearly 50 per cent by 2050, unless significant action is taken. Limiting global temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius requires changing this trajectory of transport emissions, which implies the development of an integrated electric mobility ecosystem.

The Latin American and Caribbean region has favorable conditions to advance in the deployment of electric mobility technology, including the high installed capacity based on renewables to generate electricity, the intensive use of public transport buses and the specific weight of the transport subsector in the generation of greenhouse gases, which has led many countries to prioritize the transport sector in their National Determined Contributions.

Despite national efforts to promote electric mobility, this technology is still at an early stage of adoption and has yet to be able to achieve large-scale deployment. The region's countries recognized the relevance of a regional approach and evidenced in the discussion

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